My article with Francisco Urdinez, has now been just released in Foreign Policy Analysis. In “Status at the Margins: Why Paraguay Recognizes Taiwan and Shuns China,” we look at the relationship between Taiwan and its only remaining (but, so far, steadfast) South American ally.
Using a statistical model, we estimate Paraguay’s opportunity cost for recognizing Taiwan in terms of lost Chinese FDI and loans. Why would Paraguay pay this material cost? Drawing on elite interviews and documentary research, we connect the relationship to particular dynamics of international status-seeking. In doing so, we build on the small-state status literature and also examine how Paraguay’s domestic politics shapes this form of status-seeking. Comments welcome!
Working with Francisco was a lot of fun. This article emerged, spontaneously, from my time in Chile on the Fulbright. One of the wonderful things about the Fulbright is that is gives you the space and opportunity to forge new connections. This collaboration started over several lunchtime conversations. Great to see it, finally, make its way to the public. Even better to have made a good friend in the process.
Tom Long, PhD 